China Merchants Shekou (001979) November 2019 sales data review: Sales increased steadily, land acquisition actively ended in Qianhai

China Merchants Shekou (001979) November 2019 sales data review: Sales increased steadily, land acquisition actively ended in Qianhai

Event: On December 9, China Merchants Shekou announced the company’s November sales data, and the company achieved a contract amount of 179 in November.

500 million, +12 per year.

8%; 94 signing area achieved.

20,000 square meters, +14 per year.

1%.

Opinion: November sales of 18 billion yuan, previously + 13%, cumulative 197.1 billion, ten years + 32%, plan ahead of schedule to complete November sales of 179.

500 million, +5 chain.

2%, +12 throughout the year.

8%; sales area 94.

2 omnipotent, +9 chain.

2%, +14 throughout the year.

1%, which is at least -4 higher than the high-frequency tracking of 45 cities in November.

5%; the average selling price of 19,057 yuan / square meter, -3.

6%, earlier 18 years -7.

6%.

The cumulative sales amount from January to November was 1,970.

5 ‰, +32 a year.

4%, -2 from last month.

3 pieces; sales area is 1,013.

50,000 countries, +42 per year.

4%, -3 from last month.

7 points.

The cumulative average selling price from January to November was 19,443 yuan / square meter, which was earlier than 18 years -5.

7pct; the company ‘s sales in the first 11 months continued to increase steadily, and it has completed 99% of the 200 billion yuan planned for the beginning of 19 years, and basically completed the gradual plan in advance.Under a stable background, it is expected that sales will continue to increase rapidly.

Land acquisition in November was 15.8 billion, exceeding + 170%, land acquisition / predetermined ratio was 88%, land acquisition continued to increase. In November, the company acquired 10 projects in 7 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc.面 115。 Face 115.

80,000 countries, one year +0.

4%, corresponding to the land price of 158.

0 billion, previously +170.

1%; 61.

2%, +15 from last month.

5pct; floor price of 13,635 yuan / square meter, ten years +169.

1%, the significant increase in the average price of land acquisition is mainly due to the company’s first-tier and key second-tier cities significantly increased land acquisition efforts.

The company’s land acquisition / class ratio is 88.

0%, +22 from last month.

1pct, the second highest in the year.

From January to November, the company added 1,298 planning areas.

30,000 countries, +13 per year.

4%; total land price 894.3 ‰, one year +0.

4%; 53.

2%, earlier 18 years to February.

0pct; take 45% of the land.

4%, earlier 18-9.

8pct; average floor price of 6,888 yuan / square meter, the average floor price in the early 18 years -4.

9%, land acquisition expansion and expected cost controllable.

Qianhai Land Consolidation has entered the final phase, and the follow-up is expected to promote the improvement of the income statement and balance sheet. On December 9, the company announced that China Merchants Shekou Holding Company, China Merchants Qianhai Industry, and Qianhai Investment Management Holding Company Qianhai Investment Control proposedThe capital of Qianhai Free Trade Investment (joint venture company) was increased respectively. After the capital increase was completed, the two parties each held 50% equity of the joint stock company, with a total estimated value of 145.8 billion yuan.

This is the second step taken by China Merchants Shekou in the land confirmation procedure following the formal signing of the Land Preparation Agreement and the Joint Venture and Cooperation Agreement last December. On April 30 this year, China Merchants Shekou and Qianhai ManagementThe bureau has completed land replacement in Qianhai.

At this point, the land consolidation in Qianhai has entered the final stage.

In addition, considering that all the land within the scope of the Qianhai joint venture and cooperation will be developed and constructed by the joint venture company, and the consolidated 武汉夜网论坛 financial statements will be consolidated by China Merchants Shekou, it is expected that the company’s sales and revenue will increase rapidly, thereby promoting the company’s net asset scale to significantly increase.Long reduction rates and PB estimates.

Investment suggestion: Sales increase steadily, land acquisition will be positive, and land preparation in Qianhai will end. Maintain “strong push” level. Merchants Shekou will actively transform in multiple dimensions after reorganization, management reforms, improve turnover, and accelerate integration. The company sits on the first- and second-tier high-quality soil reservesIn particular, the resource reserves of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are extremely high; only “marketization + non-marketization” has a strong land acquisition advantage.

As the company’s core target, the asset value will further increase.

The company’s Qianhai land consolidation has entered the final stage, and the development of Qianhai projects has accelerated, which will promote the improvement of the income statement and balance sheet.

In addition, China Merchants Accumulation and China Merchants Commercial Housing Trust have completed their listings in succession, which is expected to increase the company’s forecast.

We maintain the company’s 19-21 forecast earnings forecast2.

26, 2.

71, 3.

26 yuan, the current price corresponding to 19-20 PE is 8.

4, 7.

0 times, compared with previous NAV35.

A 20% discount is 46%, and we maintain our target price of 26.

4 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: the real estate market adjustment policy tightens more than expected and the industry funds tighten more than expected.